资源替代、价格联动与产业风险——再生资源产业价格波动的实证研究

Substitution of Resources,Price Linkage and Industrial Risk:An Empirical Study on Price Fluctuation of Recycling Resources Industry

文章从再生资源与初始资源之间的产品替代关系的角度,分析再生资源与初始资源价格波动之间的关联,以及价格波动对资源消费市场结构、再生资源产业的影响,并使用格兰杰因果分析方法进行实证检验。研究表明,再生资源与初始资源具有非平衡的替代关系,这种不平衡的替代关系导致了初始资源价格变化向再生资源价格的单向波动,并引发了再生资源产业的市场风险。因此,应加强政策引导,巩固和扩大再生资源使用比例,对再生资源与初始资源进行统一协调和管理,促进有利于资源节约、环境友好的资源消费结构的形成。

In the perspective of the substitution between raw resources and recycling resources, the paper analyzes the correlation between the price fluctuation of raw resources and the one of recycling resources, and the impacts of the price fluctuation on the structure of resources consumption market and recycling resources industry. And it also makes an empirical study by using Granger causality analysis. The results indicate that there exists unbalanced substitution relation between raw resources and recycling resources, which leads to the single-direction price fluctuation from raw resources to recycling resources, and increases the market risk of recycling resources industry. Therefore, we should emphasize policy guidance, enlarge the use percentage of recycling resources, and make harmonious relation between raw resources and recycling resources to promote the resources-saving and environment-friendly resources consumption structure.