人地耦合系统脆弱性研究进展

Progress in Vulnerability Analysis of Coupled Human-environment System

当前在以人地耦合系统为中心的气候变化、生态风险和可持续管理等研究中,脆弱性理论及其评价已成为地理学及很多相关学科的研究热点,其涵义不断泛化,内容日渐扩展。不同学科背景的学者对脆弱性解释存在很大分歧,这阻碍了研究的科学化,也影响研究成果的实践意义,迫切需要一个可行的框架来系统整合其理论和实践的研究。从审视脆弱性的理论沿革出发,分析其在国内外可持续发展和全球变化领域的应用现状,总结出分歧的主要原因是对相关概念关系的不理解以及研究时空尺度和学科视角的不明确。基于对脆弱性评价的整合框架的研究现状,选取VSD模型作为统领具体的脆弱性评价的依据。VSD模型的优势在于:①有明确的定义,将脆弱性分解为暴露程度、敏感性和适应潜力3个维度;②用方面层—指标层—参数层逐级递进、细化的方式组织评价数据;③有规范评价流程的8个步骤。最后以我国典型的干旱区为例,运用VSD模型构建了示例区脆弱性评价的指标和参数。

The last several years have witnessed a significant evolution and extension in the connotation and contents of vulnerability and its applying knowledge spheres, especially in global climate change, environmental risks and sustainable management. Our understanding of vulnerability has been changing rapidly in both research and application. Vulnerability of human-environment systems is a multidimensional concept made up of various categories and originates from sophisticated courses. It is undoubtedly a key to maintaining the balance of ecological system and to achieving sustainability development of human society. However, questions about the great divergence in theory and practical assessment of vulnerability of Coupled Humannvironmental Systems are emerging as a central focus of debates among scientists who are facing the challenge to depict a comprehensive and integrative vulnerability assessment framework. The integration calls for consideration of concepts, assessment approaches and data organization which may have a basis on the same basic data. In the first part of this paper, we generalize several differentiating sources on diversity definitions and practically work such as overlapping and confusing defined concepts, unclear relevant knowledge bases and multi-dimensional views. On the basis of analyzing various vulnerability articles, we define the vulnerability in terms of ecologi-cal risk, and clarify the relationships of those concerning concepts. A generalization by classifying the ongoing and finished researches was made： The global environmental change and the sustainable development with selective characteristics of each source listed in a table. To meet integration purpose, we proposed an framework for vulnerability-based assessment on the clarity of definition in view of local ecological risk and vulnerability, formal assessment approaches with eight steps and the indicator structuring technique： The VSD （Vulnerability Scoping Diagram） which organizes the data in an circular assessment diagram with ＂vulnerability＂ as the center and its three fundamental elements ：Exposure-Sensitivity-A- daptive capacity in the first ring in general form with exposure unspecified, while, in the processes of a specific assessment form, evaluating layers as Dimension-Indicator-Measures rings will be developed to organize those flourishing data .