利率平滑：基于学习机制和美联储实践的分析与启示

Interest-rate Smoothing:an Analysis on Learning Mechanism and Fed's Practice

本文通过引入学习机制,在不确定性视角下剖析了利率平滑的作用原理。认为具有学习机制的利率平滑有助于公众和央行以较低成本获取充分信息从而形成合理预期;同时,对美联储利率平滑操作实践的分析表明,利率平滑并非绝对最优,也具有一定的政策风险。因此,我国央行可在一定条件下进行利率平滑,且须注重学习才能提高政策操作效果。

By introducing learning mechanism, this paper analyses the principle of interest-rate smoothing with a perspective of uncertainty, and points out that interest-rate smoothing can help both private section and central bank obtain sufficient information for rational expectation. Also, with an interpretation of the Fed＇ s interest-rate smoothing, it concludes that interest-smoothing is not definitely optimal but somewhat risky. So the People＇ s Bank of China may consider to impose interest-rate smoothing as appropriate. In particular, it should pay attention to learning to improve policy effectiveness.