全球产出缺口与中国的通胀变动：基于扩展的菲利普斯曲线研究

Global Output Gap and China's Inflation:An Empirical Study Based on Augmented Philips Curve

本文在考察全球产出缺口与国内通胀变动关系的基础上,应用扩展的菲利普斯曲线模型,对影响我国通胀变动的国内外因素进行了经验研究,验证"全球产出缺口假说"在中国的适用性。计量结果表明,国内产出缺口、通货预期、原油价格和食品价格都是影响国内通胀变动的主要因素,贸易加权、进口加权、产出加权的全球产出缺口对国内通胀变动具有正向影响,但影响程度还没有国内产出缺口高。对待全球化背景下中国的通胀变动,不仅要分析国内宏观经济均衡与波动周期,更要关注国际市场的外部冲击。

This paper firstly investigates the relationship between global output gap and domestic price change, uses Augmented-Philips curve to examine the factors, and tests the ＂global output hypothesis＂ in China. The result indicates that inflation anticipation, oil price, food price is the main factors that affect domestic price change, and the weighted trade, import, output gap also have positive influence.