1961—2004年广西降水的变化特征分析

The Analysis on Precipitation Variation Characteristic in Guang Xi from 1961 to 2004

为了减轻干旱、洪涝等自然灾害对农业产生的不利影响和为农业产业结构调整提供气候依据,需要对广西降水时空变化特征做进一步研究。以广西91个气象站1961—2004年降雨资料为基础,运用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法,系统分析了近44年来广西降水的时空变化特征。结果表明:1961—2004年广西年平均降雨量总体呈上升趋势,但上升趋势不显著;广西年降雨量有3个时间突变点,分别是1967、1984和1994年;全区大部分站点年降水日数呈明显下降趋势,夏季和冬季的极端强降水事件呈上升趋势变化。在空间变化方面,年降雨量呈明显上升趋势的有6个站点,年降雨日数全区大部分站点呈显著下降的趋势。

In order to mitigate the effects of drought, floods and other natural disasters on the adverse effects of agriculture and provid the climate basis for adjust the agricuhural structure, Required further study in Guangxi in recent years the characteristics of temporal and spatial variation of precipitation; In this paper, research data are 91 weather stations in Guangxi from 1961 to 2004 rainfall data, The use of Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, analysis of nearly 44 years changes in precipitation characteristics of Guangxi; The results showed that Guangxi the average annual rainfall trend is an upward trend in the years 1961-2004,But the upward trend not obvious. The three time point mutations are 1967, 1984 and 1994. Most of the site in Guangxi, the number of days of annual rainfall was a clear downward trend. Summer and winter precipitation in the extreme case strong upward trend in Change. The Change in space, six sites showed a marked increase in annual rainfall trends. The number of days of rainfall in Guangxi, most of the site showed a significant downward trend.