华北地区缺水风险研究

Research on the Risk of Water Resources Shortage in North China

针对我国华北地区水资源风险问题,在对京津冀地区水资源背景进行分析的前提下,计算了以年为时间尺度的风险指标,并在此基础上对水资源风险进行分类和评价。结果显示,京津冀地区每年约缺水68.6×108m^3,北京市目前处于较高的风险水平。按照国际上现行的水资源风险指标计算方法,可以以年度为单位计算京津冀三省市水资源风险指标。结论是,1994-2006年水资源供给风险率极高,分别为0.846、0.923、0.769;稳定性分别为0、0、0.154;恢复性分别为0.182、0.083和0.100;脆弱性指标（缺水率）分别为0.333、0.497和0.213。在现有条件下,研究区的综合缺水风险指标分别为北京0.092-0.296、天津0.095-0.323、河北0.11-0.345,而且3个省市的风险率基本同步。在南水北调工程实施后的2014年前后,华北京津冀地区可以获得50×10^8m^3水量。在天然来水保证率为50%-75%的情况下,3个地区的水资源风险分别下降到0.131-0.169、天津0.158-0.195、河北0.180-0.218。研究区的水资源风险将继续存在。

To deal with the risk issues of water resources in North China,under the premise of the analysis of the water resources context in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the risk indicators on annual time scale were calculated,and then the risks of water resources was classified and evaluated on the basis of the calculation.The results showed that Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei had a water shortage of 68.6 × 10^8 m^3 and water resources in Beijing were now on a high level of risk.According to the international water resources risk assessment method,multiyear risk indicators in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei can be calculated.It was concluded that the water supply risks during 1994-2006 were all high in the three provinces,being 0.846,0.923 and 0.769 respectively;stability 0,0 and 0.154;resiliency 0.182,0.083 and 0.1;vulnerability indexes（dry rate） were 0.333,0.497 and 0.213.Under current conditions,the integrated water shortage risk indicators of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei were 0.092-0.296,0.095-0.323 and 0.11-0.345,and the municipalities of Beijing and Tianjin and Hebei Province had the similar risk level and variability.Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will get 50×10^8 m^3 water from South-to-North Water Diversion Project around the year 2014.If 50%-75% frequency of natural water supply can be ensured,the risk will drop to 0.131-0.169,0.158-0.195 and 0.180-0.218 separately.The risk of water resources in this region will continue to exist for a long time.