西安市建筑垃圾年产量的未来趋势研究

The Research of Constructing Wastage Annual Yield in Future Trends of Xi'an City

随着国际化大都市建设进程的加快,西安市建筑垃圾年产量逐年增加。为了科学地制订西安市建筑垃圾处理和综合利用的对策,针对西安市建筑垃圾产量不明的现状,依据科学性、整体完备性、代表性和可操作性四项原则,建立了影响西安市建筑垃圾年产量指标体系;运用主成分分析法构建了影响西安市建筑垃圾产量主要指标体系及主要指标,并得出了其特征根的累计贡献率,分别构建了主要指标的建筑垃圾年产量趋势模型。依据趋势模型,考虑了主要指标特征根的累计贡献率,给出了未来2009～2013年5年中西安市建筑垃圾各年总产量,预测西安市建筑垃圾年产量未来发展趋势。

Along with the acceleration of the international metropolis＇ s construction process, the annual yield of the constructing wastage in Xi＇ an City is increasing year by year. In order to formulate the countermeasures of the disposal of the constructing wastage and comprehensive utilization scientifically in Xi＇ an City and in view of the indefinite present situation of constructing wastage yield in Xi ＇an City, build a indicator system that affects the constructing wastage annual yield in Xi ＇an City, basing on four principles that are scientification, overall completeness, representation and feasibility. We construct the main indicator system as well as key indicators by using principal components analytic method, obtain its characteristic root＇s total contribution rate and construct the trend model of the constructing wastage annual yield of key indicators, basing on these trend model and considering the characteristic root＇ s total contribution rate of key indicators, the constructing wast annual yield in Xi＇ an City in the next 5 years which is in 2009- 2013 are given, forecasting the future developing of the constructing wastage annual yield in Xi ＇an City.