大飞机项目对相关产业影响的CGE研究

Impact of Large Aircraft Project on Chinese Macro-economy and Various Industries,a CGE Approach

本文应用索洛余值法以及计量经济学中的协整理论测度大飞机项目对技术进步的作用,然后运用一个中国动态CGE模型——MCHUGE模型定量研究大飞机项目启动对中国宏观经济及相关产业的影响.研究结果表明:国内投资与技术进步之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;大飞机项目的启动对中国宏观经济的发展富有积极的作用,但大飞机项目带来的技术进步并非对所有行业的产出水平都有积极的影响.

This paper aims at measuring the impacts of large aircraft project on China＇ s technological progress. Firstly, this article adopts the Solow residual value and co-integration method to explore a Chinese dynamic general equilibrium （CGE） model--MCHUGE model to appraise the impact on Chinese macro-economy and various industries by large aircraft project, providing a reliable decision - making basis for Chinese economic development. Simulation results indicate that, between the domestic investment and the technology advancement, there is a long-term stability balanced relation. When the large aircraft project is initiated, it will exert a positive impact on Chinese macro-economy and China will maintain a stable GDP increase in a long time. Employment will increase dramatically in the short run while in the long run it will decline a little. Yet the general trend is still positive. Real wage will continue to go up slowly, and the capital stock and investment will keep positive deviation in a long time. However, the production activity of some industries will suffer from the technological progress due to large aircraft project.