摘要
危岩体的空间预测问题一直是危岩研究的热点和难点,危岩体的空间预测即表达不同自然地质条件下的危岩体的空间危险程度,因此其实质就是对危岩的危险度进行评价。目前危岩空间预测以定性和半定量方法为主,依靠专家经验判断。围绕如何定量地预测危岩的危险度,利用信息熵原理,结合三峡库区重庆市万州区37个危岩体的数据,计算各评价因子的客观权重,建立了定量评价模型。计算各个危岩体的危险度,通过实地调查对评价结果进行了对比验证。结果显示准确率达86.5%,可作为危岩体危险度评价和空间预测的新方法,为危岩的预警和防治提供科学依据。
With the development of in-depth research, spatial prediction of perilous rock has become the focus and difficult point. The key function of geo-hazard spatial prediction is to express the danger degree under different geologic conditions, which is equivalent to hazard degree assessment. Current research methods in this field are mainly qualitative, semi-quantitative or depending on experts' experience. This article has set up a quantitative index system based on information entropy method, subjective weight of all indices are combined with data from 37 perilous rocks in Wanzhou County, Three Gorges, and a qualitative perilous rock hazard degree assessment model was established. Then this model was used in evaluating the hazard degree of the perilous rocks in Wanzhou County, danger degree result of them are obtained, and verified through field investigation, it's indicated that accuracy reaches 86.5%. Consequendy this model can be implemented as a new method for risk evaluation or spatial prediction of perilous rocks, and thus provide a basis for early warning.
出处
《地质通报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第8期1098-1102,共5页
Geological Bulletin of China
基金
科技部“十一五”国家科技支撑计划项目《滑坡风险评价理论与方法研究》(编号:2006BAC04B05)
科技部国际合作项目《三峡库区蓄水后滑坡危险度预测研究》(编号:2007DFA21150)
三峡库区高切坡科研项目《高切坡分类研究》(编号:2008SXG01-01)资助
关键词
三峡库区
危岩
空间预测
危险度
信息熵
Three Gorges reservoir area
perilous rock
spatial prediction
hazard degree
information entropy