长江三峡库区危岩体的空间预测方法

Discussion on spatial prediction of perilous rock in the Three Gorges reservoir area of Yangtze River,China

危岩体的空间预测问题一直是危岩研究的热点和难点,危岩体的空间预测即表达不同自然地质条件下的危岩体的空间危险程度,因此其实质就是对危岩的危险度进行评价。目前危岩空间预测以定性和半定量方法为主,依靠专家经验判断。围绕如何定量地预测危岩的危险度,利用信息熵原理,结合三峡库区重庆市万州区37个危岩体的数据,计算各评价因子的客观权重,建立了定量评价模型。计算各个危岩体的危险度,通过实地调查对评价结果进行了对比验证。结果显示准确率达86.5%,可作为危岩体危险度评价和空间预测的新方法,为危岩的预警和防治提供科学依据。

With the development of in-depth research, spatial prediction of perilous rock has become the focus and difficult point. The key function of geo-hazard spatial prediction is to express the danger degree under different geologic conditions, which is equivalent to hazard degree assessment. Current research methods in this field are mainly qualitative, semi-quantitative or depending on experts＇ experience. This article has set up a quantitative index system based on information entropy method, subjective weight of all indices are combined with data from 37 perilous rocks in Wanzhou County, Three Gorges, and a qualitative perilous rock hazard degree assessment model was established. Then this model was used in evaluating the hazard degree of the perilous rocks in Wanzhou County, danger degree result of them are obtained, and verified through field investigation, it＇s indicated that accuracy reaches 86.5%. Consequendy this model can be implemented as a new method for risk evaluation or spatial prediction of perilous rocks, and thus provide a basis for early warning.