通货膨胀目标制宜于现阶段我国货币政策吗?——基于弹性目标规则分析框架

Is Inflation Targeting Suitable for Chinese Monetary Policy at This Stage? Based on the analysis Framework of Flexible Target Rules

从中央银行独立性、货币政策工具及传导机制、利率市场化及通货膨胀指标的选择等方面分析了通货膨胀目标制在降低通货膨胀水平、保持宏观经济稳定等方面具有的优势,并以中国数据进行实证检验。检验发现,我国尚未完全具备实施通货膨胀目标制所需要的条件,因而,现阶段通货膨胀目标制并非我国的最优货币政策选择,货币政策仍宜于将货币供应数量和价格作为混合使用的政策调控目标。虽然目前我国尚不完全具备实施通胀目标制的条件,但是大部分条件很快就可以满足,因此,在不彻底改变现行政策的前提下,可考虑先作为"影子政策",并切实稳步推行相关制度的完善,待条件成熟后再全面推行,以促进我国社会经济的协调健康稳定发展。

This paper analyzed lizing the economy from these the advantages of inflation targeting in aspects involving in the central bank reducing inflation rate and stabiindependence, monetary policy tools and transmission mechanisms, market-oriented interest rate and inflation targets, etc. The empirical study based on Chinese data demonstrates that the conditions for implementing inflation targeting are not suitable for our country, so the inflation targeting is not the optimal rule for China. There-fore, our government should hold money supply and price constant as the mixed target for controlling economy in the short run. However, with the development of economy, the conditions for implementing inflation targeting will be improved; this rule can be applied in the long run. Now we can consider it as a ＂shade policy＂ to stimulate the development of economy before the conditions are satisfied.