中国农村地区代际收入流动的多水平统计模型分析

Analysis on the Multilevel Statistical Models of Intergenerational Income Mobility in Rural China

根据中国健康和营养调查(CHNS)数据,从代际传递的角度,以九省区农村地区农户家庭子女作为分析对象,运用多水平统计模型分析了影响子女收入的因素。研究发现在控制了子女的相关属性变量后,子女收入受父亲收入影响较大。这说明农村地区代际收入流动性较小,呈现出一定的代际继承性。分析结果同时表明农村地区代际流动性存在中部、东部以及西部地区上的差异。最后,建议政府增加公共医疗资源的供给,提供更多的职业培训,加强通讯交通等基础设施建设,从而为农村子女发展创造更多的机会,以增加代际间的流动性。

Based on the CHNS data set, and regarding the children in nine provinces or regions of rural China as analysis unit from the view of intergenerational transportation, the paper analyzes the income of children and its factors using Multilevel Statistical Models. The results indicate the intergenerational correlation of incomes between children and house head is strong after controlling individual characteristic variables, which means intergenerational income mobility in rural China is weak. The results also find that there are regional differences about the intergenerational income mobility. At last, the causes of the differences and some measures have been proposed. Government should increase public medical resources provision, create more occupational training etc, then provide more opportunities, improving intergenerational mobility.