基于人流分析的上海世博会规划方案评价与调整

IN-SITE VISITOR FLOW ANALYSIS AND PLANNING ADJUSTMENT OF THE SHANGHAI EXPO

介绍了同济大学参与世博会场地规划设计的两轮方案编制过程中的人流模拟分析的尝试。首先根据60位学生的虚拟参观数据建立参观者选择展馆的多项分对数模型;然后以规划方案为条件,应用模型模拟参观者的参观流线;从特征流线、人流分布、人数分布等方面进行分析。结果发现第一轮方案将引起参观者活动过于向东片展区集中的问题,并依此调整形成第二轮方案。调整取得了良好的效果,参观者活动分布趋于平衡,流线也更顺畅。说明人流分析对于规划方案评价与调整的潜在价值。

This paper introduces the simulations of visitor flows in two rounds of site planning of the Shanghai EXPO 2010 by Tongji University. It firstly sets up a multinomial logit model based on a virtual visit dataset of 60 students. Visitors＇ motion tracks are then simulated based on the model. Then the feature motion tracks, visitor flow, visitor distribution are analyzed. The results of the first round plan show that visitors would over-concentrate in the east part of the site, which is then adjusted in the second round. After the adjustment the visitor distribution is more balanced and the motion tracks are more fluent, which suggests the value of visitor flow analysis in site planning.