中国民航业安全风险监测与仿真研究

Research on Risk Monitoring and Simulation of China's Civil Aviation Industry

根据系统安全的思想,通过对航空安全历史数据的分析和专家经验,从人员、设备设施、环境和组织管理4个方面,提出中国民航机务、空管、飞行、机场4个分系统安全风险监测指标体系,共102个风险因素指标,并合成为27个行业安全风险监测指标。以民航历史数据为样本,建立资源优化神经网络(RON)模型,将安全风险监测指标与中国民航安全指数相联系,分析安全指数的关键影响因素,达到安全管理决策支持的目的。通过建立的风险监测指标体系和RON模型,可以实现民航整个行业、各分系统及单个指标的安全风险监测和预警。

According to the theory of system safety, the safety risk monitoring indicator system is presented on the basis of the analysis on the previous accidents, incidents and other historical data related to civil aviation safety. This indicator system, composed of four subsystems of aircraft maintenance, air traffic con- trol, airlines operation and airports operation, includes 102 risk factors. These factors, ranging over man （human factors）, machine （equipment and facilities）, medium （or environment） and organizational management, are integrated into 27 industrial safety risk indicators. The resource optimization network（RON） model is established by using the historical data as specimen to link these indicators with the safety index of the industry. This model can analyze the critical indicators to support the decision-making for safety management. The indicator system and RON model can be used for the whole industry, or the subsystems, or a single indicator to monitor risks and realize early warning.