基于主成分分析法的空管多指标安全综合评估研究

Multi-index Safety Comprehensive Evaluation of Air Traffic Control Based on Principal Element Analysis Method

在空中交通管制运行风险识别的基础上,建立反映其安全状况的指标体系,并确定指标的量化方式。运用主成分分析法对指标数据进行处理,建立管制安全综合评价模型;通过实例对管制安全的评价结果进行分析,认为管制员违规操作和技术水平是影响管制安全运行的重要因素,另外空管设备的完好程度对管制安全存在较大的隐患。根据建立的模型,对4个管制单位的安全性进行了评价。综合评估的结果为空管部门制定安全措施及预防对策提供科学的分析依据。

Air traffic control safety has an important influence on civil aviation transportation safety. Based on identified operation risk factors of air traffic control, the multi-index system of air traffic control safety evaluation was constructed and the quantitive rule of the index was ascertained. The synthetical model of safety comprehensive evaluation for air traffic control was established in the employ of principal element analysis method. Analyzed an example of air traffic control safety comprehensive evaluation, both factors of the index system affected the operation of air traffic control safety were found out, namely the deregulation and the competence of controller. The availability of equipment was hidden trouble of air traffic control operation. Finally, the safety of 4 units of air traffic control was evaluated in the light of the synthetical model of safety comprehensive evaluation for air traffic control. The results show that the method is useful for making the safety countermeasures of air traffic control and improving its safety.