1961-2008年新疆克拉玛依市气候变化分析

Climatic Change in Karamay City of Xinjiang during 1961-2008

根据新疆克拉玛依市气象站1961—2008年的历史气候资料，采用气候倾向率、累积距平、t检验和Morlet小波等方法，对1961—2008年的年平均气温、降水量、日照时数和年平均风速以及年潜在蒸散量和地表干燥度等要素的变化趋势和变化特征进行了研究，结果表明：①1961—2008年克拉玛依市年平均气温和降水量呈上升趋势，日照时数和年平均风速呈减小的趋势，气候总体呈“暖湿化”趋势；②潜在蒸散量与日照时数和平均风速呈极显著的正相关关系，与年降水量呈极显著的负相关关系，但与气温的相关性不显著。受各气候要素变化的综合影响，1961—2008年，克拉玛依市潜在蒸散量和地表干燥度呈显著的减小趋势；③突变检测表明，克拉玛依市年平均气温、降水量分别在1988年发生了突变性的升高，而风速、潜在蒸散量和地表干燥度分别于1988年、1983年和1986年发生了显著的突变性减小，日照时数未发生突变。综合各要素的突变特征，可以确认，克拉玛依市的气候于1986—1988年发生了“暖湿化”的突变；④各要素分别存在4～22a的不同时间尺度的周期性变化。

Based on the climatological data from Karamay meteorological station during 1961--2008,the fundamental change characteristic of various climatic element, such as temperatures, precipitation, hours of sunshine,wind speed, potential evapotranspiration and surface aridity index were analyzed by use of the method of linear trend analysis,accumulated variance,T-test and wavelet analysis of Morlet. The main results are obtained as follows：（1）The annual mean temperature, precipitation are increasing, but the annual sunshine hours and wind speed are decreasing;（2）The correlation analysis showed that there are significant positive correlation between potential evapotranspiration and the annual sunshine hour and average wind speed,and there are significant negative correlation between potential evapotranspiration and annual rain- fall. The correlational dependence is not remarkable between potential evapotranspiration and annual average temperature. In the comprehensive influence of climatic factors, the potential evapotranspiration are significant decreasing and surface humidity index are increasing; （3）The abrupt examination indicated that the annual mean temperature, precipitation had the discontinuous ascension in 1988, the annual average wind speed,Potential evapotranspiration and surface aridity index had discontinuous reducing in 1988,1983 and 1986 respectively, but the sunshine hour has not had the sudden change. To sum up the sudden change characteristic of temperature, precipitation and surface humidity index, the climate in Karamay region occurred the sudden change of＂Warm-Wet＂ in 1986--1988; （4） Various climatic element had the cyclical change of the different time criterion of 4--22 a respectively.