摘要
影响石油化工机械零部件失效的绝大部分因素都存在着不可确定性。因此,以定值法为基础的设计分析方法已无法全面正确地反映这些不确定性。文中以概率论为基础,对机械零部件进行可靠性分析。应用蒙特卡罗模拟法对这些具有某种特定分布的随机变量进行了随机抽样计算,得出了在一定条件下化工设备零部件的失效概率,并利用线性同余法编制了计算机程序,求出在一定随机分布下的可靠度。用实例证明了此计算方法在可靠性估计中的可应用性及其工程意义。
Most factors which cause parts failure of Chemical machine are of uncertainty.Therefore, the design analysis method on basis of valuation method has been unable to completely and correctly tell these uncertainties.The article analyzes reliability of the machine parts based on probability theory.A random variable sampling in some certain distribution has been calculated by Mote-Carlo method,finding out the failure probability under a certain condition.And a computer program has been developed by using linear congruence method,which was used to find out the reliability at the condition of a certain random distribution,which reliability in of machine parts estimation and its engineering significance has been demonstrated by the real example.
出处
《石油化工设备技术》
CAS
2009年第3期20-22,共3页
Petrochemical Equipment Technology
关键词
设备失效分析
可靠度
随机数
蒙特卡罗法
Equipment failure analysis Reliability
Random number
Monte carlo method
