扎龙湿地水质变化趋势的灰预测

Gray forecasting on changing tendency of water quality in Zhalong wetland by Gray Model

扎龙湿地是我国最早列入国际重要湿地名录的湿地之一。近年来随着人类活动的加剧,湿地水质的恶化正在引起科研界的关注。以东升水库、吐木可小桥、哈塔桥三个主要点位近几年来的监测数据为基础,应用较为流行的Matlab软件和GM(1.1)模型对扎龙湿地未来几年的水质变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明,未来几年扎龙湿地三个主要点位的水质变化是CODMn和BOD5呈上升趋势,而TN和TP则呈下降趋势。最后在此基础上提出科学合理的生态修复对策。

Zh along Wetland is one of the earliest wetlands which located in the international important wetland register. During recent years, the water pollution of Zhalong wetland that normally attributed to anthropogenic activities which attracted a lot of attention of scientific community. The changing tendency of TN, TP, CODMn and nODs concentrations in water of Zhalong wetland at different sites, Dongsheng reservoir, Tumuke bridge and Hata bridge, in the future it would be forecasted by Matlab Software and GM（1.1） to establish, which based on the measurement dates during recent years. The concentrations of CODMn and nOD5 in water at different sites showed an increasing trend and the concentrations of TN and TP showed slightly decreasing trend. Finally the reasonable ecologic remedy was proposed forward.