国际航空气象预报的发展趋势

Outlook of International Aeronautical Meteorological Forecast

结合国际上最新的航空气象预报产品或项目,介绍了美国、加拿大及欧洲在航空气象预报方面的最新进展和未来的发展趋势。综合来看,未来航空气象预报将更多地基于网络技术,逐渐走向半自动化和自动化;将更多地使用概率预报;形式也将更加多样化,图形格式的预报产品将有越来越大的比率。在航空用户业务系统中,预报产品最终将成为集成的决策辅助工具;在协同决策中的所有参与者使用统一的预报产品;针对不同的航空用户提供不同的预报产品将是未来气象服务的一个主要方向。

By reviews on the state of the art in aeronautical meteorological forecasting products, the recent advancements of aeronautical meteorological services in USA, Canada and Europe are summarized. It is the trend that, forecast will be prepared in semi - automatic or even full - automatic ways, and be distributed more via WEB and more in a variety of graphical forms. Prob- abilistic forecast becomes more popular. Personalized forecasting services are tailored to different customers, through collabora- tive decision making based on a unified set of products. The forecasting products will finally be integrated into the operational systems of aviation customers as a decision - making tool.