基于混沌理论的旧城区更新中防灾问题研究

Disaster Prevention in the Reconstruction of Old Urban Districts： A Research Based on the Chaos Theory

历史旧城区是具有历史传统风貌和特色的住区，承载着人们对历史文化的认同感。在科学技术高度发展的今天，历史旧城区往往高密度开发，人口密度、建筑密度和容积率过高，城市环境恶化旧城区里多种复杂系统叠加，在诸多方面表现出混沌理论的“混沌性”。混沌的历史旧城区往往在灾难面前表现脆弱。本文用混沌理论的“奇异吸引子”概念来说明城市灾难现象，然后从混沌性产生的条件出发反向推导出旧城区更新中防灾、减灾的基本原则，并具体分析说明：因此．混沌理论可以用来分析城市更新的重要性，也为目前的历史旧城区抗震、防灾提供新思路。

The historical old city is a settlements with the style and characteristics of the historical tradition, carrying the historical and cultural identity. Highly developed in science and technology nowadays, the historical old city is often developed highly, the density of population and building, the floor area ratio is too high, and the urban environment is deteriorated. In the old city, many kinds of complex systems are super posited, shown the characteristics ＂Chaos＂ of the chaos theory in the various aspects. The chaotic historical old city is often vulnerable in the disaster. In this paper, the ＂strange attractor＂ concept of the chaos theory is cited in order to illustrate the disaster phenomenon of urban. And then derive reversely the basic principles of the disaster prevention in the update of the old city from the conditions of the generation of chaos, and analysis them specifically. Thus, the chaos theory can he used to analyze the importance of the urban updating, and provide new ideas for the disaster prevention and seismic of the current old city.