摘要
随着我国经济建设的迅速发展,工程建设规模和投资额逐年增大。如何对拟建工程的投资进行准确的估算对工程建设决策具有重要意义,投资估算的准确性直接关系到工程的建设规模、设计方案及以后的经济效果。文章探讨了一种基于模糊数学和灰色预测理论相结合的方法,对工程建设投资进行估算。其原理是:首先选取典型工程建立特征元素的隶属函数,其次采用判断矩阵法确定各特征元素的权重,并通过计算典型工程与拟建工程的贴近度选出相似工程,最后运用灰色预测理论的GM(1,1)模型对拟建工程的投资进行估算。文章结合工程实例详细说明了该方法的应用过程。
With the rapid development of economic construction in China, scale and investment of construction projects have been increasing. How to estimate accurately for investment of designed projects is important for engineering construction decision. The accuracy of investment estimation is directly related to the construction scale, design and economic effects. This paper mainly explored a method by combination of fuzzy mathematics and grey prediction for engineering construction investment. Firstly, the typical engineering projects are selected and the membership functions of characteristic element are established. Secondly, the weight of each characteristic element is determined by judgment matrix method and similar projects are chosen by calculating closeness degree between typical engineerings and designed project. Finally, the investment of designed projects is estimated by GM （ 1, 1 ） model in grey foresting method. The case study was conducted illustrating the application.
出处
《建筑管理现代化》
2009年第4期343-346,共4页
Construction Management Modernization
关键词
工程项目
投资估算
模糊数学
灰色预测
GM(1
1)模型
construction project
investment estimation, fuzzy mathematics： grey prediction
GM （1, 1）model
