影响国际油价的主要因素分析

Analysis on Main Factors Affecting International Oil Price

石油作为一种战略资源,一直是国际社会争夺的焦点。近些年来受地缘政治、国际资本流动、突发事件与供求关系等因素的共同影响,国际石油市场动荡不安。文章从最基本的供求规律视角出发,介绍了世界石油供求格局演变的进程,总结出世界石油供需总体上表现为需求略大于供给,供需平衡紧张,世界石油供需格局呈现出发展中国家尤其是亚太地区成为世界石油需求中心的趋势。同时对影响国际油价的主要因素进行探析,指出石油价格在长期内主要是受到供求关系的制约,而国际政治、投机行为等随机因素则会引起国际石油价格的短期波动。

As a kind of strategic resource, petroleum has long been the focus of contests in the international society. In recent years, under the overlapped effects of geopolitics, international capital flow, emergency and supply and demand relation, the international petroleum market has been in ferment. From the visual angle of basic law of demand and supply, this paper introduces the developing process of global petroleum supply and demand structure, and summarizes that the global petroleum demand exceeds supply slightly, and developing countries especially Asia- Pacific area tends to become the global petroleum demand center. It also analyzes the main factors affecting international petroleum price, and pointes out that petroleum price is restricted by the relationship between supply and demand in long term, and short-term fluctuation may be caused by some random factors as international politics and speculating behaviors.