灰色线性回归在冬小麦产量长期预测中的应用

Application of Gray Linear Regression in the Long-term Forecast of Winter Wheat Yield

针对农作物产量序列既有线性趋势又有大幅波动的情况,用直线回归残差分离原始序列,构建灰色线性回归组合预测模型。对宿州冬小麦产量的预测结果表明,该模型克服了GM(1,1)模型和线性回归模型的缺陷,具有一定的应用价值。

According to the crop production sequences bad the situation of both linear trend and fluctuating sharply,the residuals of linear regression to separate from the original sequence were used, and a gray linear regression prediction model was built. The results of winter wheat yield forecast in Suzhou showed that this model had overcome the defect of the GM（ 1,1 ） model and linear regression mode, which had a certain value.