基于Logistic模型的上市公司财务危机预警研究

Study of Financial Crisis Pre-warning about Chinese Listed Companies Based on Logistic Model

随着市场竞争的日益激烈,企业财务危机预警显得尤为重要。近年来,国内外学者进行了大量研究,取得了丰硕成果。但过于注重方法的改进而忽略其在实践中应用的可行性这一不足却日益凸显。鉴于此,以我国上市公司(A股)为研究对象,试图以"增强研究的适用性"作为主导思想,通过预警方法的合理选择,构建预警模型及预警重点指标观测体系,以期实现有效预测及防范危机的目标。

When the market competition has become increasingly fierce, the pre - warning of enterprise＇ s financial crisis is much more important. In recent years, domestic and overseas scholars research on this problem and gain rich achievements. But the weakness of paying much more attention to the improvement of method and ignoring the feasibility of using in practice has become prominent day by day. In view of these causes, this paper establishes the pre - warning model and the key target observation system taking ＂enhance the applicability of research＂ as the guild idea, through the reasonable selection of the pre - warning methods based on Chinese listed companies. The purpose is to achieve pre - warning effectively and prevent financial crisis.