利率平价关系不稳定条件下短期资本流动机制的运行

The Operation of Short-term Capital Flow System under Unstable Interest Parity Condition

现代利率平价理论分无偏差预测理论与有偏差预测理论,两者对非抵补利率平价是否成立的观点截然相反。大量实证研究更多地表明在当今各种经济基本面、政策面及其不确定性预期等因素的影响下,利率平价关系日益呈现出不稳定性,在短期资本套利和套汇机制作用下,当期和未来短期资本流动方向均有不同变化。近几年来,我国短期资本流动发生较大波动,当前存在着短期资本重新转为大量流入的动向,政府需加强短期资本流动监控,以防遭受冲击。

The modem interest parity theories are classified as uncovered interest parity and covered interest parity with opposite opinions as to whether non - covered interest rate parity exists. A large volume of empirical studies shows more evidence of the volatility of interest parity, under the influence of economic fundamental factors , policy factors and its prediction uncertainty. Driven by short - term capital arbitrage and foreign exchange speculations, different changes have occurred upon current and future capital flows. In the past 7 years, there has been large fluctuation of short - term capital flows in China. There are signs of substantive net inflows in the near future. Policy makers should strengthen regulation and monitoring of short - term capital inflows in order to prevent shocks resulted from short - term capital flows.