澳门博彩业的经济带动能力及其产业政策取向分析

The Economic Driving Ability of the Gaming Industry in Macao and the Choice of its Industrial Policy

澳门经济的突出特征之一,就是对海外资源的有效利用。文章针对澳门博彩业"一枝独秀"的现状,运用灰色关联度、VAR模型分析了博彩业发展对澳门就业、固定资产投资、相关产业、经济增长、海外资源的带动能力,基本结论是:澳门博彩业的产业集中度高、产业关联度低,对相关产业的带动作用小;博彩业发展对经济增长的带动作用较大,但对就业、社会固定资产投资、海外资源的带动作用较小;博彩业发展与经济增长率、就业率、固定资产投资增长率之间存在双向而非单向的因果关系;产业风险性大等决定了澳门政府应该采取相应的产业政策促使其产业结构适度多元化。

The paper uses a gray relational model and a vector auto-regression model （VAR） to analyze the driving ability of developing the gaming industry in Macao for its economic growth, investment, employment and foreign resources. It concludes that the gambling industry promotes the fast development of economy, and at the same time, the degree of industry centralization is very high but the degree of industry relevance is very low, and there is a little driving effect on other related industries. Although the development of the gaming industry has a driving effect on Macao＇s economy, there is only a limited driving effect on its employment, fixed-asset investment and foreign resources. There is not a two-direction causal relationship between the gaming industry and the rate of GDP, the rate of employment, and the rate of fixed-asset investment. It suggests that Macao government should take corresponding industrial policies to promote the proper diversification of its gaming industry.