三维斜压台风模式　Ⅱ.预报试验

A baroclinic typhoon model with a moving multi-nested grid and variational adjustment initialization Ⅱ. Forecast experiments

一种斜压多重移动套网格台网模式在国家海洋环境预报中心已被应用于海洋环境预报。本文第一部分已描述了模式方程组和数值方法。本文继续概述模式网格、变分调整初始化和预报试验结果。最外粗网格域固定，内部细网格域随台风中心轨迹移动。模式中，粗细网格变量采用双向耦合。平衡方程和方程，理想台风场和变分调整方案被用于台风模式初始化。一种简单而有效的资料同化方法，即用第６ｈ台风报和弱约束变分原理调整初始场，被应用于提高预报结果。最后本文给出预报试验结果。预报误差统计显示本模式对台风路径预报具有相当能力，而且可以提供海面风和气压场较好的预报。本模式已经与海浪模式联结，得到满意的波高预报结果。

A baroclinic typhoon model with a moving triple-nested grid has been applied for marine envi- ronmental forecasts in the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China. The governing equa- tions of the model and the numerical methods have been described in the first part of this paper. An outline of the model grid, variational adjustment initialization and forecast experiments will be continued in the paper. The outmost region with coarse grids is fixed and the inner fine resolution regions follow the track of typhoon center. In the model, variables at the coarse and fine grid. interact through two-way coupling. The equilibrium equation and the w-equation, an idealized typhoon field and variational adjustment scheme are used for initial- ization of the typhoon model. Prediction results are improved by using a simple but effective data assimilation method in which the initial fields are adjusted by using a simple but effective data assimilation method in which the initial fields are adjusted by using the sixth hour's typhoon report and the week-constraint varia- tional principle. Finally the results of the forecasts are shown in the paper. The .statistics of the forecast errors show that the model has certain capability to predict typhoon tracks and gives good results for surface wind and pressure forecasts. And the typhoon model has been linked with a sea-wave model and satisfactory fore- cast for wave height has been gotten.