我国银行信贷与产业结构变动关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Credit and Change of Industry Structure in China

本文运用多变量VAR模型、协整检验、Granger因果检验等计量方法,对中国1979-2008年银行信贷的规模、效率与产业结构变动之间的关系进行了实证研究,研究结果表明:我国银行信贷规模、效率与第一、第二产业变动之间存在着长期的协整关系;银行信贷规模与效率是第一、第二产业变动的原因;银行信贷规模、效率与第三产业变动之间不存在协整关系。

Using muhi-variable VAR model, cointegration test, Granger causality test methods, this paper empirically tests the relationship between credit and change of industrial structure from 1979 to 2008 in china. The results show that credit scale, efficiency and change of the primary and secondary industry have long-term cointegration relationship; credit scale, efficiency are the reasons for changes in the primary and secondary industry, while there exists no cointegration relationship between credit scale, efficiency and change of the tertiary industry.