出口贸易、FDI与我国企业的国际化路径选择——新—新贸易理论模型扩展及我国分行业企业数据的实证研究

Export,FDI and Our Country's Firms' Internationalization Path Selection:New—New Trade Theory Model Expansion and Demonstration Research with Our Country's 36 Industries

我国企业应该继续扩大出口还是转而对外直接投资,它们应该如何在不同的国际化路径间抉择,是当前我国经济发展和转型中的一项重要课题和难题。本文以国际贸易前沿的新—新贸易理论框架为基础,扩展了理论模型,得出生产率高的企业应该选择对外直接投资,而生产率低的企业应该选择出口贸易的结论。同时,选取我国36个行业的1997—2006年的数据,用三种不同的方法估算和矫正行业全要素生产率,并将理论应用到实际,解析和得出了我国不同行业应有的国际化路径选择。

It is a very important problem in our country＇s economic development and revolution for firms to select between export and FDI. The paper based on the new-new trade theory which put forward just in 2004 ,expanded the model and got the conclusion that firms with high productivity will choose FDI and firms with comparatively lower productivity will choose export. And also,the paper used our country＇s 36 industries data from 1997 to 2006,calculated the industry TFP with three different measures,then tested the model with the results and mainly analyzed each industry＇s internationalization path.