城市经济开放度对房地产价格的影响研究——基于中国35个大中城市面板数据模型的分析

Urban Openness and Real Estate Prices:Empirical Evi-dence from Thirty—Five Large Scale Chinese Cities

巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说（简称“巴萨假说”）认为在经济快速增长阶段，可贸易部门较快的劳动生产率增长提高了非可贸易部门的相对成本，从而提高了非可贸易商品的相对价格。本文基于我国35个大中城市1998年-2006年的相关数据，利用面板数据模型，从开放经济体的视角检验了“巴萨假说”对房地产这类典型非可贸易品的适用性。实证分析表明：城市经济开放度水平每正向变动1％，城市房地产价格上涨约0．066％；住房价格波动不仅受到城市经济维度与房地产市场维度因素的影响，而且也受到开放经济维度因素的影响。本文结论不仅为预测全球经济衰退以来房价走势提供了新的依据，而且对政府干预住房市场的实践也具有启发意义。

Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis argues that during the period of fast economic growth, the differential rates of productivity growth in the traded goods sector raised the relative cost of non-tradable goods sector,thus enhancing the relative prices of non-tradable goods and services. This paper utilizes a dataset of thirty-five major Chinese cities as well as the panel data regression techniques,to empirically examine the effectiveness of Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis when applying to the typical non-tradable goods sector,the real estate. The empirical results confirm our research hypothesis that there are significant positive correlations between the urban openness variable and the real estate prices. When the urban openness increase by 1%,the urban real estate price will increase by 0.066%. Real estate prices are not only related to property market and urban factors,but also are impacted by open economy variables. The conclusion of this research not only provides new evidence to forecast the real estate price movements during the global economic recession ,but is also of value for the practice of government intervention in the property market.