首都机场快线客运需求预测与运营方式研究

Study on the Forecast of the Passenger Flow to Beijing Capital Airport by Airport Express Line and Its Operation Plan

为了更好地安排首都国际机场快线运营及接驳方式,在分析机场快线客流构成的基础上,改进了基于多式网络客流预测的方法,使得对量化各种交通运输方式之间的换乘和衔接成为可能.在此基础上,使用TransCAD对通往首都机场的客流量进行了预测.在预测过程中,通过建立广义时间函数,充分考虑了不同收入层次旅客在时间、费用、舒适度上的不同需求.根据预测客流,设计了机场快线在高峰、平峰的运营间隔时间及东直门换乘枢纽点的停车场规模,为东直门交通枢纽的规划设计及首都国际机场客流快速集疏散提出了有参考价值的建议.

To improve the operations and connections of the Capital International Airport Express, this paper ameliorates the prediction methods based on the multimodal network, which makes it possible to quantify transfer and connection between different transportation modes, after analyzing the passenger composition on the capital airport express line. Then, the passenger flow is forecasted by TransCAD. In the process of forecasting, the different requirements such as time, costs, and comfort of different income level of passengers are considered through establishing a broad function of time. According to the forecasted passenger flow, the paper designs the operating interval of the Airport Express Line in peak and non-peak hours, and the size of car park at Dongzhimen transfer hub, which provides a valuable suggestion for the rapid collection and distribution of the passenger flow to the Capital Airport.