摘要
基于净现值的进入模型是对市场均衡状态下企业进入决策的一个描述。但在现实中,不均衡却是市场的一种常态,因此企业无从进行基于净现值的进入决策。本文首先建立了一个基于成长期权价值的进入模型,并指出在成长期权式的市场机会(即商业前景向好)出现时,企业的最优进入时机并不一定是单调的,而是依赖于进入成本、机会成本与成长期权价值三个变量的时序变动模式。这意味着企业家(创业者)不仅要在动态的市场环境中识别成长期权式的投资项目(创业项目),而且要能根据企业当前业务所处的生命周期阶段审慎地选择进入时机。鉴于已被证实的巨大商业前景,本文将互联网产业看作一项成长期权,并基于成长期权理论对微软的战略性并购进行了分析。
Entry decisions based on NPV models are often used to model the entry of firms to a market that is in equilibrium. However, in reality disequilibrium is a normal state for markets, so the NPV- based model fails to work. We construct an entry model based on the growth option and conclude that optimal entry timing is not necessarily a monotonic function of the value of growth option, but is contingent on entry costs, opportunity costs and the value of growth option in any given time period. This indicates that entrepreneurs should not only identify growth option-like business opportunities in a changing market, but should also choose the time of entry with discretion according to the life cycle of their existing business. In this sense, entrepreneurs could be considered as a type of experience-saving apparatus, and a genuine entrepreneur is one who can capture a business opportunity before they have practically experienced it. By employing an entry model based on growth options, we try to give an analytical interpretation of Microsoft＇s strategic acquisitions. Give the promised prospect, the internet industry, as a growth option, become increasingly clear but increasingly unprofitable as time passes by. This implies there exists a precise time for Microsoft to achieve an optimal acquisition and also implies that there exists a time window for Microsoft to make rational acquisitions. The timing characteristics of Microsoft＇s strategic entry into the online business are consistent with the theoretical prediction deduced from the growth option based entry model.
出处
《南开管理评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第4期55-61,共7页
Nankai Business Review
