物价水平的财政决定理论与实证研究

An Empirical Research on Fiscal Theory of Price Level in China

基于我国的实际数据,在具有交迭世代特征的动态随机一般均衡模型框架下,本文采用Bayes技术对我国物价水平的决定机制进行实证检验,并对货币政策和财政政策在物价水平的决定中所起的作用及其相互协调问题进行分析;最后,从稳定物价的角度,对我国未来货币政策和财政政策的协调机制提出改进建议。目前国际上采用Bayes方法对交迭世代形式的DSGE模型进行估计还非常少见,因此,我们采用Bayes方法对交迭世代形式的DSGE模型进行估计是一个很有挑战性的尝试。

Based on actual data of China, the paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model （DSGE） with characteristics of overlapping generations （OLG）, and applies Bayesian techniques to take empirical research on the determination of price level and the roles that monetary and fiscal policy play and the coordination between them in determining the price level in China. Some constructive suggestions are proposed on the improvement of coordination between monetary and fiscal policy in stabilizing the price in China. Considering the fact that there are not many international empirical researches on DSGE models nested with OLG characteristics by means of Bayesian estimation, this research is a challenging experiment in China.