开放经济下中国货币政策操作规范研究

A Study on Monetary Policy Paradigm in the Opening Economy of China

货币政策有相机抉择和按规则行事两种操作规范。本文先对开放经济下中国货币政策的规则性成分和相机抉择性成分进行了分离,再利用Cholesky方差分解方法,确定了我国货币政策操作中影响经济波动的主要成分,结果显示,开放经济下中国货币政策操作以相机抉择性成分为主。最后,本文对中国的货币政策进行了动态模拟,发现规则型货币政策可以大大减小我国开放经济下真实GDP增长率、通货膨胀率及人民币名义有效汇率的波动。因此,本文建议开放经济下中国货币政策应尽快向规则型货币政策操作转型。

There are two kinds of monetary policy operations： discretion and rules. This paper firstly separates the rules and discretion components from the monetary policy in the opening economy of China, and confirms the primary component that affects the economic fluctuations in monetary policy operation by Cholesky variance decomposition method. It is shown that in the opening economy, Chinese monetary policy operation is mainly based on discretion. Finally, the paper simulates dynamically Chinese monetary policies, and finds out that the rule - oriented monetary policy can greatly cut down the fluctuation of the real GDP growth rate, inflation rate and the nominal effective exchange rate. Therefore, the authors suggest that the discretion -oriented monetary policy operation should be transferred to ruleoriented one as soon as possible.