一个基于金融稳定的外汇储备分析框架--兼论中国外汇储备的适度规模

An Analytical Framework of China Foreign Exchange Reserves:Based on Financial Stability and Appropriate Scale

本文构建一个包含外汇储备、金融不稳定、资本流动以及实体经济变量的系统分析框架,探讨影响新兴市场经济体外汇储备的相关因素,继而模拟出中国合意的外汇储备规模。研究结果表明,若国内金融稳定受到冲击或者跨境资本流动日益频繁,外汇储备在广义货币量中的占比就会增加;金融不稳定和实体经济状况对外汇储备占比的边际影响都呈现递减的态势,说明外汇储备的作用是有限度的。另外,模拟结果显示,在确保国内金融稳定的前提下,目前中国的外汇储备总量并不过度,正处于合意的区间范围之内。

The literature of appropriate foreign exchange reserves based on the financial stability is the research focus at home and abroad. We try to build a analytical framework including foreign exchange reserves, financial instability, capital flow and the real economy variables. We try to use the theoretical model and empirical methods exploring the impact on foreign exchange reserves in emerging market economies of the relevant factors and simulating the size of China foreign exchange reserves desired. The relevant findings show that, if the domestic financial instability and capital flow become larger, foreign exchange reserves in the amount of broad money will increase in proportion. The marginal impact of the financial instability and the real economic situation on the foreign exchange reserves have shown a gradual decline posture and it is indicated that the role of foreign exchange reserves is limited. In addition, the simulation results show that under the premise of ensuring domestic financial stability, the total amount of China foreign exchange reserves are not excessive. It is in the desired appropriate range interval.