中国城市与区域经济增长的扩散回流与市场区效应

Spread-backwash and Market Area Effects of Urban and Regional Growth in China

本文综合增长极理论和中心地学说构建了扩散回流和市场区效应空间计量模型,使用全国除西藏以外的2169个市县数据对2000年至2007年的各市县非农业产出、就业和资本增长所受到的溢出效应进行计量分析。联立方程估计表明,虽然各级市县产出、就业和资本增长的主要决定因素是要素投入和产出规模以及人力资本和地方要素,但是不同等级的城市间存在着显著的空间相互作用。其中,省会和地级中心城市的经济增长对下级市县有显著的回流效应,而下级市县的经济增长对位于市场中心的上级城市有明显的市场区增长作用,同级市县经济增长有互相促进作用。本文最后简要总结了研究结果在区域经济发展中的政策意义。

Based on growth pole and central place theories, this paper proposes a spatial simultaneous equation system of non- agricultural GDP, employment, and fixed capital growths to analyze spread-backwash and market area effects among 2169 cities and counties in China except for Tibet over 2000--2007 period. The simultaneous equation estimates indicate that although factor inputs, production scale, human capital, and local factors are the primary determinants of non-agricultural GDP, employment, and fixed capital growths, there exist significant spatial spillovers between different hierarchical levels of cities and counties. Provincial capitals and prefecture level cities exert significant backwash effect on the neighboring lower level cities and counties, while lower level cities and counties contribute to the growth of higher level cities and cities and counties of the same hierarchical levels affect each other positively. In conclusion, the paper briefly discusses policy implications of the research findings.