高等教育改革、预防性储蓄与居民消费行为

Higher Education Reform,Precautionary Saving and Consumer Behavior

很多研究表明我国居民储蓄存在较强的预防性动机,但对其背后的原因和微观基础却研究甚少。本文以经验事实观察为基础,利用CHIP数据进行实证检验,截面分析表明,高等教育支出对居民消费有显著的挤出效应,它使得有大学生的家庭的居民边际消费倾向下降12%,两年混合截面数据分析也有类似的结论。接下来在生命周期模型框架下,引入教育支出,结合中国的发展实践校准相关参数,用数值模拟方法考察高等教育改革对家户消费行为的影响,从理论上探讨其对降低居民边际消费倾向的内在微观作用机制。

Substantial empirical researches show that households in China have high incentive of precautionary saving; however, few micro-data-based studies on the reasons accounting for this incentive have been made. Based on the CHIP dataset, crosssection analysis demonstrates that higher education reform in 1999 has a significant Squeeze-out effect on household consumption, and marginal propensity to consume of households with members attaining higher education had decreased by 12 percent from 1995 to 2002. Under the Life Cycle Model frame, a theoretical model is constructed with education being introduced in. Simulation analysis indicates that anticipation of increasing uncertainty as a result of higher education reform is the main reason that accounts for the higher incentive of precautionary saving and thus the sluggish consumption demand in China.