西安市境外旅游本底趋势线的建立及科学意义

Foundation and Significance of Background Trend Line of Xi′an City′s Abroad Tourism

提出了旅游本底趋势线的概念，依据１９７８年～１９９５年共计１８年客流量统计数据，建立了西安市境外客流总量、外国人和港澳台胞３条本底趋势线；利用本底线自然延伸的“预测”功能，预测未来４年西安市境外客流量变化，外国人将呈增长趋势，港澳台胞和华侨将呈下降趋势，总体客流量仍呈增长趋势。

The concept of tourism background trend line is given, and based on the statistics data of abroad tourists from 1978 to 1995, the inner insertion method is connected and the major interference is eliminated, 3 background trend line is founded by optimization simulated method. They are: a. tourists from foreign countries, b. tourists from Hongkang, Macao, Taiwan and Chinese overseas, c. total number of tne above two. Two scientific functions of tourism background trend line are discovered: (1) compared with statistics line, it indicates the rise and fall of tourism just as tourism barometer. (2) The extension of the line can predict the future. The two functions above explain the concave curve induced in 89′s polite wave and forecasts the next 4 years development trends of Xi′an City′s abroad tourism.