基于因素敏感性水平的边际油田开发模糊风险分析

Fuzzy Risk Analysis for Marginal Oilfield Development Based on Factor Sensitivity Levels

海上油田开发投资大时间长，并伴随着相当大的不确定性和风险．尤其是边际油田的开发，其投资风险更不容忽视．分析了海上油田开发的不确定性因素，在敏感性分析的基础上，定义了不确定性参数对评价指标的敏感度．利用模糊风险分析，确定了方案的风险度，对开发方案的风险程度进行了定量分析，为方案的选择提供了决策依据．对某一海上边际油田的开发进行了示例分析，计算结果表明，边际油田的开发具有很高的风险，而投资费用、石油价格以及可采储量的不确定性是引起开发风险的主要因素．

Developing offshore oilfield needs vast investment and long time, and is accompanied with considerable uncertainty and risk, especially for the marginal oilfield.This paper analyses the uncertain factors in developing offshore oilfield, and defines the sensitivity degree of uncertain factors to evaluating targets on the basis of sensitivity analysis. The risk degree of development plan is judged by using fuzzy risk analysis,which offers a decision basis for choosing an optimum plan. An example of offshore marginal oilfield development is analyzed. The calculation results demonstrate that the risk of developing maginal oilfield is high and that the uncertainty of investment,oil price and recoverable reserves is the main reason to cause the risk.