舰船总体可靠性分配方法

Distribution Method of Whole Ship's Reliability

提出一种适用于舰船设计各阶段的舰船总体可靠性分配的实用方法．把总体可靠性分为使用可用度和任务可靠度：前者可由系统的可靠性、维修性和综合后勤保障参数求得；后者的计算是将任务分成若干阶段，所有的任务阶段均分为三种类型，即航渡类、待机类和任务类，每个阶段根据各自的特点用故障树法结合数值仿真方法建立对应的计算模块及可靠度模型，然后再将各模块的模型综合起来，组成任务可靠度模型．另外，对初值问题和约束条件进行简化，以专家综合评分为依据确定各系统搜索步长，进行可靠性分配搜索，利用故障树分析方法和基于最小割集的数值仿真算法计算各阶段的概率，从而得到总的系统可靠性．该方法作为舰船总体可靠性分配模型的一种尝试，在实际应用中已取得成功．

A practical method suited for the whole ship's reliability distribution of each phase in ship design is proposed. It divides the whole reliability into mission reliability and utility reliability. The utility reliability can be calculated from parameters of system reliability, maintenance and synthetical logistics. The calculation of the mission reliability is to divide the mission into several phases, all of which can be classified to three types, namely the sailing, standing by and mission. Each phase develops homologous calculation module and reliability model according to its character of mission using faulttree method and digital simulation algorithm, then integrates all module's model into a whole missionreliability model. And the initial value and constraint condition are simplified. The search step length is formulated according to specialist's synthesis evalution and the reliability distribution is searched. Using a digital simulation algorithm based on MCS and faulttree analysis to calculate each phase's probability, the system reliability is got. As an experiment of the whole ship's reliability distribution model, this method makes a practical success.