中国移动电话扩散的驱动力及预测模型研究

A Study on the Drivers of Innovation Diffusion of Mobile Telephony in China and Forecasting Model

本论文通过直接选取成长模型以估计影响中国移动电话扩散的决定因素及预测其未来成长趋势。鉴于成长模型的选取具有随机性,故本研究比较了3种移动电话扩散通用模型的配适度和预测力,然后以按拟合度最高的扩散模型来确定因子及对未来成长的预测。根据1986-2007年中国移动电话用户信息采集研究显示,Gompertz模型为最适模型,扩散速率的决定因子有:与移动电话具有互补性的固定电话及其它3项与市场需求相关的因素。本研究预测2008年中国移动电话及小灵通用户总计普及率为51.9%,与实际数值的误差很低。本研究丰富了对中国移动电话扩散的驱动力估计,提高了成长预测的准确性,并指出了低价市场对中国移动电话扩散的重要性。

The rapid diffusion of mobile telephony is an important subject in diffusion studies of innovation. This study attempts to discern how mobile telephony diffuses in China, which has the most mobile telephone subscribers worldwide, in terms of the appropriate diffusion model and forces driving diffusion. To identify the appropriate diffusion model, this study compares the fitness and forecasting ability of three conventional models - the Logistic, Bass and Gompertz models. The determinants of the diffusion rate are then analyzed based on the most appropriate model. Empirical results, based on data for mobile telephone subscribers in China for 1986 -2007 （NOTE： use anen dash （ - ） for ranges）indicate that the Gompertz model performs best. Moreover, the four determinants for the diffusion rate are number of fixed - line subscribers, the low cost of mobile handsets, pay - as - you - talk（ pre - payment） service and the Personal Handy- phone System （PHS） service.