供水工程的敏感性分析

Sensitivity Analysis of the Water Supply Project

敏感性分析是通过测算一个或多个不确定因素的变动所引起的方案经济评价指标的变化幅度,来了解不确定因素的变化对预期经济效果的影响程度,从而为项目方案决策提供依据。某供水工程供水水源较多,工程组成复杂,因此分析工程投资、供水收入等因素对该工程建设和施工期间的影响,从中确定敏感性因素,为建设单位在项目建设以及后期运营过程中予以重视是非常必要的,同时对该工程的良性运营将具有重要意义。

In order to investigate the effect degrees of expected economic effect produced by uncertainty factors variation and then provide evidence for the project scheme decision, sensitivity analysis is proposed by calculating the change range of project economic evaluation index caused by one or more uncertainty factors variation. There is a water supply project with several sources and complicated compositions. It＇ s very necessary for the construction department to pay attention, in the period of construction and post-staged operation, to the sensitivity factors which are determined by analyzing the impact of factors for instance project investment, water supply income on the project during construction period. Meanwhile, it has important significance on project benign operation.