东亚经济冲击对称性分析与东亚货币合作

Symmetry of East Asian Economic Shocks and East Asian Monetary Cooperation

经济冲击的对称性程度,是判断一组经济体是否可以进行货币合作的一个良好指标。本文在前人研究的基础上,对经济冲击的分解变量进行了重新选择,将东亚9个经济体的经济冲击分解为供给冲击、需求冲击和货币冲击。静态与动态实证结果都显示东亚目前的冲击对称性程度还不高。未来东亚货币合作的方向,除了在整体上继续推动东亚各经济体在各领域的合作外,重点是要推进大国之间的经济合作与协调。

The symmetry degree of economic shocks is a good indicator to estimate whether a group of economies can form a monetary union. Based on the present studies, this paper chooses new variables and decomposes the shocks of 9 East Asian economies into supply, demand and monetary shocks. The empirical results show that the symmetry degree of East Asian shocks is not high. So the future direction of monetary cooperation in East Asia, in addition to continuing to promote the economic cooperation of East Asia in all fields, should be focusing on the economic cooperation and coordination among big countries.