摘要
本文在行为均衡汇率分析框架下,对1995～2007年的人民币均衡实际汇率及其失调程度进行了实证研究。结果显示,1996年第2季度～1998年第4季度人民币实际汇率为高估,而1999年第1季度～2005年第3季度期间人民币实际汇率经历了两次明显的低估。新一轮汇率改革以后,人民币实际汇率随着名义汇率的不断升值出现了一定程度的高估。在当前金融危机不断蔓延的情形下,急需调整逐步升值的汇率政策,避免高估对实体经济特别是出口产生的负面影响。
Under the framework of BEER,this paper has analyzed the equilibrium real exchange rate of RMB and its misalignment using the data:1995,Q1~2007,Q4.The result indicates that RMB was overvalued during 1996,Q2~1998,Q4 and there are two obvious undervaluation periods during 1999,Q1~2005,Q3.Since the new round of exchange rate reform,RMB has been overvalued to a certain extent with gradual appreciation of RMB's nominal exchange rate.Under current circumstances of financial crisis,it is urgent to adapt the original gradual appreciation policy,avoiding the side-effect of overvaluation on real economy,especially export.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第8期14-19,共6页
World Economy Studies
