外商直接投资的挤入、挤出效应——基于外资不同来源地和中国地区差异的视角

The Crowd-in or Crowd-out Effect of FDI:From the Perspective of Different Sources and Difference among Regions in China

针对当前学者对外商直接投资在中国产生挤入或挤出效应结论的多样化,本文从外资不同来源地和中国地区差异的角度具体到单个制造业行业研究外商直接投资的影响。基于1999～2006年中国31个省市纺织业的面板数据,本文经验分析的结论是:不论是整体外资还是港澳台商直接投资、其他来源地的外商直接投资在中国东部地区都存在挤入效应,在西部地区都存在挤出效应,在中部地区挤入或挤出效应均不明显;其他来源地的外商直接投资在东部地区的挤入效应和西部地区的挤出效应都要大于港澳台商直接投资;按来源地划分的外商直接投资的挤入或挤出效应大小和整体外资也有差别。

Considering the conclusion variety in FDI's crowd-in or crowd-out effect in China,this paper studies FDI effect in specific industry from the perspective of different sources and difference among regions in China.Based on 31 provinces' panel data:1999 to 2006,the conclusion of its empirical analysis is as follows.First,total FDI as well as FDI from Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan(HMT)and FDI from other sources have crowd-in effect in the eastern of China,crowd-out effect in the western and insignificant crowd-in or crowd-out effect in the central.Second,the crowd-in effect in the eastern and crowd-out effect in the western of FDI from other sources are both larger than FDI from HMT.Finally,the effect of FDI divided by sources is different from that of total FDI.