我国农村放弃“政策内二孩生育”现象的调查研究——以贵州省黎平县为对象

The Study on the Phenomenon of Abandoning"the Right of Bearing Second-child under Policy Permission"in Chinese Rural Areas——Targeting at Liping County in Guizhou Province

为研究近年来我国农村地区出现的放弃"政策内二孩生育"现象,以探讨影响未采人口良性发展的更多新的变量因素,以放弃"政策内二孩生育"现象凸显的贵州省黎平县为实证分析个案,通过文献研究、问卷调查、入户访谈、召开座谈会等调研方式,对该县这一现象的产生动因、发展趋势、正负效应、应对策略等进行了系统分析。分析结果表明,婚育观念的转变、利益导向政策的刺激、经济困难的约束、男孩偏好的满足是这一现象发生和发展的主要动因,而养老保障、意外风险、传统因素、社区舆论等又是制约该现象进一步发展的主要因素。同时随着推迟和放弃二孩生育家庭的日益增多,这一现象既有降低人口增长速度、缓解社会压力、提升人口素质、提高生活水平等积极的人口正效应作用,但也可能带来人口性别比失衡加剧、家庭功能削弱、生育势能积压、人口老龄化问题加重等消极的人口负效应影响。为此,必须通过营造良好环境、进行制度建设等推动该现象的良性发展。分析最后表明,贵州省黎平县这一现象的复杂动因和多维效应,显示出西部民族贫困地区农村放弃"政策内二孩生育"的特殊条件因素和路径走向,其可能引发的人口效应应当引起国家层面的高度重视和多重应对思考。

In order to study the phenomenon of abandoning ＂the right of bearing second child under policy permission＂ in Chinese rural areas appeared in recent years and explore more variable factors to influence the future population sound development, this article will take Guizhou Liping county （the phenomenon of abandoning ＂the right of bearing second child under policy permission＂） as an example for empirical analysis by literature research, questionnaire survey, home interviews and holding symposia etc. research methods, to do a systematical research on the causes of such phenomenon, trends, positive and negative effects and countermeasures. The analysis results show that it is the occurrence and main driving forces of thisphenomenon that changes in marriage and the stimulation of interest-oriented policies, economic difficulties bound and boy- preferring. Furthermore. there also exist many other main factors to restrict the further development of the phenomenon such as the pension security, the risk of accidents, the traditional factors, community and public opinion. At the same time, with growing number of families that postpone the child beating and abandon the second child beating, this phenomenon not only brought positive effects such as reducing the population growth, easing social pressure and improving the quality and living standards of the population but also brought many negative impacts such as the sex ratio imbalances of the population, weakening the family function, the backlog of potential reproductive ratio and problem of population aging. To this end, it is necessary to create a good environment for the conduct of system-building to promote a sound development of such phenomenon. The final analysis shows that the complicate motive causes and multi-dimensional effect of the phenomenon in Liping County of Guizhou Province clears the special conditions and the path in poor western minority rural areas to abandon the ＂ tight of bearing second child under policy permission＂ . The effects led to the population should be highlighted by the state council and dealt with a high attention and multiple reflections.