摘要
文章运用方程和指数分解的方法分析了江苏省2000-2007年的能源消耗及能源消费强度状况;根据江苏能源需求的历史发展趋势、小康社会指标以及发达国家能源利用状况分情景预测了江苏未来能源利用效率及能源需求总量。文章针对实现小康社会目标的各种情景,分析了经济结构对能源需求和能源强度的影响并提出政策建议。
This paper utilized the IPAT equation and index decomposition to analyze the energy demand and energy intensity of Jiangsu from 2000 to 2007; According to historical trends of Jiangsu＇s energy demands, indexes of well-off society and the usage of energy consumption of developed countries, three scenes of energy demand were set, and intending energy demand and energy intensity of Jiangsu were forecasted; the impact of the perceived changes in the economic structure on energy requirements and energy intensity were analyzed; Some related conclusions were attained and some corresponding policy suggestions were proposed.
出处
《改革与战略》
北大核心
2009年第8期53-56,共4页
Reformation & Strategy
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助项目(项目编号:08JHQ0053)
江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究(项目编号:06SJB790024)
江苏省教育厅哲学社会科学项目(项目编号:08SJD6300048)阶段性成果之一
关键词
情景分析
可持续发展
能源强度
能源需求
scenario analysis
sustainable development
energy intensity
energy demand
