我国公共投资经济增长效应的实证研究

Empirical Research on the Effects of Public Investment to Economic Growth

运用协整分析、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量分析工具,对我国公共投资与宏观经济增长的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,由公共物质资本投资、人力资本投资及研发投资构成的公共投资与国内生产总值具有长期的正向均衡关系,但贡献率较低;公共研发投资与经济增长关系很弱,且不存在双向格兰杰因果关系。因此,我国在增加公共投资总量的同时,要着重对公共投资结构进行优化,加大对科技创新、教育和卫生的投资力度。

This article focuses on the Empirical Research about the effects of public investment to economic growth, using econometric tools of eointegration analysis, VECM, impulse response and residual decomposition. Our results indicate： public investment,including public material investment, public labor investment and public R＆D investment, has positive longterm equilibriunl relation with GDP; impulse respouse of GDP to the public investment shock is positive, while to the R＆D investment is negative; R＆D investment does not Granger cause GDP. So the authors suggest pay more attention to adding investment on technology, education and healthcare, while adjusting structure of public investment.