河南省经济增长与就业关系的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Relationship between Economic Growth and Employment in Henan Province

本文采用1978—2007年河南省国内生产总值和从业人员的统计数据,根据协整理论并利用格兰杰因果关系检验法,对河南省经济增长与就业人数的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,河南省经济增长和就业人数之间存在双向因果关系和长期稳定的均衡关系。同时,本文在协整分析的基础上建立了误差修整模型,误差修整系数的大小反映了对偏离长期均衡的调整力度。

Using the statistical data about GDP and employment in Henan during 1978-2007, this paper empirically analyzes the relationship be tween employment and economic growth in Henan province by co-integration theory and Granger causality test. The results show that there are two-way causality and long term stable equilibrium between employment and economic growth in Henan province. On the basis of the co-inte gration analysis, it establishes an error correction model（ECM） to illustrate the adjusting force of error correction coefficient upon the trend that deviates from long-term equilibrium.