基于改进的灰色理论预测铅锌烧结过程综合透气性

Synthetic permeability prediction for lead-zinc sintering process based on the improved gray theory

针对铅锌烧结过程中影响烧结综合透气性的因素具有不确定性以及目前已知的预测模型存在建模过程复杂的特点,利用改进的灰色理论来建立其预测模型。首先,考虑到灰色理论能在一定程度上降低不确定性带来的影响以及建模过程简单,建立了基于灰色理论的综合透气性预测模型。接着,针对建模数据序列的单调性改变后传统灰色理论不能及时跟踪数据序列变化的情况,根据建模数据序列单调性改变后的数据个数以及结合具体的单调性改变情况,提出了相应的修正公式,对传统灰色理论的预测结果进行适当的修正。实验结果表明,所提出的改进灰色理论比传统的灰色理论能在一定程度上提高预测精度。

Considering the uncertainties of the factors affecting the synthetic permeability during the lead-zinc sintering process and the complexity of the present prediction models, this paper proposes a new prediction model using the improved gray theory. Firstly, the gray theory is applied to building a prediction model for the synthetic permeability, because the gray theory not only can reduce the negative effects of the uncertainties to some extent, but also can easily build a prediction model. Then, to overcome the disadvantage of the gray theory that, after the monotonicity of data sequence is changed, it can not follow the changes of data sequence in time, the corresponding formulas are proposed to modify the prediction results of the conventional gray theory according to both the number of data after sequence monotonicity is changed and the specific changes of monotonicity. The experiment has verified the improved gray theory＇ s better prediction accuracy.