股指期货波动溢出效应的实证研究——来自双变量EC-EGARCH模型的证据

An Empirical Research of the Volatility and Spillover Effects of Stock Index Future Market Based on 2-EC-EGARCH Model

当前中国股指期货尚未上市,而香港市场的恒生股指期货则是一个很好的参照物。研究表明香港股市和期市之间存在相互引导关系,两市各自的波动性对消息的反应存在不对称性,并且期市和现市之间,期货交易产生的信息会加剧恒生指数的波动,而恒生指数的波动并不能对期货价格的波动产生显著的影响,因此存在不对称的溢出效应。

The volatility spillover effects between the stock index futures market and spot market is always a key point of research. Since there are no stock index futures in China mainland nowadays, we use the Hang Seng Index Futures and the Hang Seng Index as the study object. The research shows that there are bid leadlag relations between the futures and spots, and the information transmission and spillover is asymmetric, which is defined as ＂asymmetric spillover effect＂. These conclusions are of great importance to our forthcoming stock futures.